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The operation, which began just two weeks ago, surprised almost everyone with its rapid success in achieving its first objective, which was to control Aleppo, the country’s second largest city. Syria.
Then, in a little more than a week, the opposition coalition arrived in Damascus and on Sunday completed 5 decades… The rule of the Assad family.
The rapid advance depended on the availability of almost ideally favorable conditions for the forces opposing Assad, as the army was frustrated and exhausted, the forces of the two main allies, Iran and the Lebanese group Hezbollah, were weakened by the conflict with Israel, and Russia, another major military support of Assad, was engaged in his war in Ukraine and lost… Worry about Syria.
Two sources, a diplomat in the region and a member of the Syrian opposition, said that the forces The opposition It would not progress without first notifying Turkey, which has been a major supporter of the Syrian opposition since the first days of the war.
Turkey is deploying forces on the ground in northwestern Syria and supporting some opposition factions that have been determined to participate, such as the Syrian National Army, despite Ankara designating the main faction in the opposition coalition, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, as a terrorist group.
The diplomat said the opposition’s bold plan was the brainchild of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, known as Abu Muhammad al-Julani.
Because of his previous ties to al-Qaeda, Washington included WEurope Turkey Al-Julani is on the list of terrorists.
But over the past decade, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, formerly known as the Nusra Front, has sought to improve its image by establishing a semblance of a government administration based in Idlib that experts say has taxed businesses and residents.
The government of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which struck a deal with Russia in 2020 to calm fighting in northwestern Syria, has long opposed such a major offensive for fear it would lead to a new wave of refugees crossing its borders.
Two sources pointed out that the opposition believes that Ankara’s position towards… Syrian President It strengthened earlier this year after Assad rejected Erdogan’s repeated overtures to reach a political solution to the military stalemate that has left Syria divided between the government and a range of opposition factions backed by various outside parties.
A source belonging to said Syrian opposition The opposition informed Turkey of the details of the plan, after Ankara tried unsuccessfully to communicate with Assad.
The source noted that the message read: “The other way doesn’t work for years, so try our way. You don’t have to do anything, just don’t interfere.”
Hadi al-Bahra, the internationally recognized leader of the Syrian opposition abroad, told Reuters last week that joint planning between Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian National Army was “limited” before the operation and that they had agreed to “cooperate, not conflict.” “
He added that the Turkish army saw what the armed groups were doing and what they were talking about.
Leo is the weakest
The rebel strike came when Assad was at his weakest.
Due to the preoccupation of its military allies, Russia and…Iran And the Lebanese group Hezbollah, with wars elsewhere, has been unable to muster the decisive firepower that has sustained it for years.
The weak Syrian armed forces were unable to resist.
A regime source told Reuters that tanks and planes had run out of fuel due to corruption and looting, illustrating the degree of fragility that has afflicted the Syrian state.
The source, who requested anonymity for fear of reprisals, said morale in the military had seriously deteriorated over the past two years.
Aaron Lund, a researcher at Centuri International, a Middle East-focused think tank, said the HTS-led coalition was stronger and more cohesive than any previous opposition force during the war, and much of that was due to Abu Muhammad al-Julani. But, he added that the weakness of the regime is crucial.
He continued: “After losing Aleppo in this way, they could not Regime forces “They will never recover, and as the fighters advance, Assad’s army is getting weaker and weaker.”
But the pace of progress of opposition fighters, with control over mother-in-law On December 5 and the fall of Homs on Sunday around the same time that government forces lost control of Damascus, expectations were exceeded.
Consequences of Gaza
Sources familiar with the expansion said Hezbollah fighters The group has already withdrawn many of its elite fighters from Syria over the past year to fight Israel, a conflict resulting from the Gaza war.
Israel has dealt heavy blows to Hezbollah, especially after it carried out an attack in September that killed the group’s secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, and many of its leaders and party fighters.
The opposition’s offensive in Syria began the same day it entered cease fire between Israel and Lebanon enters into force on November 27.
Sources familiar with Hezbollah’s deployments said it does not want to engage in major battles in Syria, as the group is focused on beginning a long road to recovery from the violent blows it has suffered.
The withdrawal of Hezbollah from Syria represented a valuable opportunity for the Syrian armed opposition coalition.
An opposition source said: “We just wanted a fair fight between us and the regime.”
The fall of Assad also deals a major blow to Iran’s influence The Middle EastThis influence began to decline rapidly after the assassination of Nasrallah and the damage Israel inflicted on Hezbollah.
On the other hand, Turkey now appears to be the most influential outside party in Syria, with troops on the ground and contacts with opposition leaders.
In addition to the return of Syrian refugees, Turkey’s goals include reducing the power of Syrian Kurdish groups that control large areas of northeastern Syria and are backed by the United States, which Ankara considers terrorist groups.
