Idlib and Aleppo… the spark of large settlements or the fuel of new conflicts?

The rapid advance, which has coincided with a major withdrawal by Syrian forces and their allies, has redrawn the map of the conflict in northern Syria and raised the question of whether this military earthquake was the prelude to large settlements or fuel for new conflicts.

To unpack these events, he hosted “radar“Researcher at the Center for Policy Analysis, Mahmoud Alosh, military and strategic expert, Brigadier General Turki Al-Hassan, and Democratic strategist and former adviser to Hillary Clinton, Richard Goodstein.

Local and regional factors behind the rapid progress

Researcher Mahmoud Alosh opened the discussion by pointing out that the recent attack represented a “big earthquake” on the Syrian scene.

He explained that the withdrawal of government forces and Iranian militias from… Aleppo This was the result of long-term accumulations, including the decline of Iranian influence due to repeated Israeli strikes and preoccupation Russia With her war Ukraine.

Alush pointed it out TurkeyDespite his official denial of any direct role in the attack, his prior knowledge of what happened cannot be ruled out. He said: “The preparations for this attack took months and it is illogical for it to take place without the knowledge of Turkey and Russia, given their influence in the region.”

Military consequences: rapid collapse and strategic losses

from DamascusBrigadier General Turki Al-Hassan described the situation as a “big shock” to the Syrian street, as what happened brought the scene back to the beginnings of the civil war.

He confirmed that the withdrawal Syrian army andIranian militia He was tactical to avoid further casualties, but acknowledged shortcomings in the conduct of the battle.

He said: “The rapid collapse of the fronts indicates poor military coordination and that there are international and regional factors that interacted to cause this earthquake.”

Al-Hasan added that Turkey could benefit from this development, but faces challenges in managing its relations with Russia, especially in light of the complexity of the joint Syrian, Turkish-Russian dossiers.

International dimension

From Washington, Richard Gottstein explained that the US administration is surprised by recent developments on the ground, denying any US involvement in supporting armed factions. He believed that “new unrest in Syria is not in our interest.” US“which seeks to maintain the stability of the status quo in the region”.

Goodstein pointed out that the timing of the attack, which comes during the transition period between the Biden and Trump administrations, raises questions about the intentions… Turkey and Israel In anticipation of possible changes in American policy towards… Syria.

What’s next for Aleppo?

As armed factions continued to advance in northern Syria, the stage appeared open for several scenarios. In this context, Mahmoud Alush emphasized that controlling Aleppo puts Turkey in a stronger negotiating position, but also puts it in front of great responsibilities towards Russia and the international community.

For his part, Al-Hassan stressed the need for the Syrian army to rebuild its positions in Aleppo, warning that the continuation of the collapse could lead to the outbreak of new conflicts, the effects of which will spread to neighboring countries.

Gudstein concluded the discussion by emphasizing the importance of international and regional parties working to prevent the conflict from escalating into an all-out confrontation, expressing the hope that these events will be “the starting point for political solutions that guarantee the stability of the region.”

Syria between chaos and hope

With the escalation of confrontations in Idlib and Aleppo, the most important question remains:

Will these developments be the beginning of strategic changes that will reshape the Syrian scene, or are they just a new link in a series of endless conflicts?

The answer depends on the ability of international and regional parties to absorb previous lessons and work towards a new balance in the region.