Israel is threatening, and Hezbollah is waiting… The “Lebanese truce” is at stake

“Nine“, he looked at the dimensions of the escalation of tensions, and the possibility of a new confrontation if the violations continue.

Israeli threats to destroy Lebanon

Writer and political researcher Faisal Abdel Sater spoke about the Israeli Defense Minister’s statements in which he hinted at a repeat of the 2006 war scenario, warning that any collapse of the truce could lead to an all-out escalation that would include the destruction of Lebanon’s infrastructure. .

He pointed that out Israel US guarantees are being used to implement Resolution 1701 with firepower, as seen in ongoing raids on civilian and military sites in South Lebanon.

Hezbollah: a cautious commitment

Abdel Sater addressed Hezbollah’s position, noting that the party is handling these threats with caution, as it has shown exceptional commitment to the agreement despite constant Israeli violations.

He emphasized that the party is trying to expose Israel’s transgressions before the international community, relying on the negotiations led by the Lebanese state with French and American support.

The role of the five-year committee in the implementation of the agreement

The program discussed the role of the Five-Year Committee, which includes representatives of the United Nations, andUSFrance andLebanonand Israel, in monitoring the implementation of the ceasefire, as Abdel Sater explained that this committee faces major challenges, primarily ensuring that the parties adhere to the terms of the agreement, amid mutual accusations of violations.

Israeli escalation in Kafr Shuba

The episode highlighted a recent operation in Kfar Shuba, where Israel targeted Hezbollah positions, killing a number of civilians, according to Lebanese reports.

Abdel Sater pointed out that these attacks come in the context of Israel’s strategy to impose its control over the border areas, which increases the possibility of a new conflict.

Regional and international repercussions

Abdel Sater discussed the impact of the escalation on regional stability, noting that the US has expressed concern over the possibility of the accord collapsing, while France is pushing to contain the crisis by strengthening the role of the Five-Year Committee.

He explained that any new escalation could lead to a wider regional crisis, including the intervention of other international and regional parties.

Future scenarios

Abdel Satter concluded the discussion by analyzing possible scenarios and believed that the ceasefire could be maintained if international pressure on Israel to stop its violations continued, but continued escalation could force Hezbollah to respond, opening the door to an all-out military confrontation.

With the truce between Israel and Hezbollah fragile, the future of stability in southern Lebanon remains dependent on the parties’ adherence to the terms of the agreement.

Will international efforts succeed in maintaining peace or will the escalation lead the region into a new confrontation?