Syria after Assad is at the table of “international influence”.. What will happen?

In this context, analysts discussed the positions of the main players in an interview with “Ski News Arabia”, such as: Turkey And the United States, and its role in shaping the next phase, amid the question of Fr Reconstruction And the struggle for regional influence.

Turkey and its interests

Writer and political researcher Taha Odeh Oglu spoke about this Turkish role The trend of growth in Syria after the fall of Assad, referring to the statements of Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fedan, who affirmed that “it is the Syrian people who will determine its fate and future.”

He added that Turkey is focusing on transitional steps to ensure the stability of the situation and prevent chaos, especially with the escalating fear of terrorist organizations such as ISIS.

Oglu pointed out that Turkey faces major security challenges in the border areas, as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stated that “peace with Lion “That would have been possible if he had met Turkish demands.

However, Assad’s rejection of these demands forced Ankara to redouble its moves to protect its interests.

Oglu explained that the tripartite meeting in Doha between Turkey, Russia and Iran was a strategic step to discuss the “interests of the three countries in Syria”.

Turkey, according to the analyst, understands that the next phase requires a balance between coordinating with major powers, such as Russia, and maintaining its presence in areas controlled by the opposition.

America is torn between caution and security interests

On the other hand, Muwafaq Harb, US affairs editor at Sky News Arabia, explained that the US position towards Syria is cautious. He said the United States, under the Biden and Trump administrations, has focused on “fighting ISIS and punishing Russia and Iran,” avoiding direct involvement in Syria’s internal affairs.

He added that the Biden administration has maintained a limited military presence in eastern Syria, where it supports Kurdish and opposition factions, to ensure the continued achievement of US security objectives. “The US is not interested in meddling in Syrian political affairs, but is committed to preventing the return of ISIS and countering Iranian and Russian influence in the region,” says Harb.

He pointed out that American-Israeli coordination is one of the main axes of American policy in Syria. This coordination aims to monitor the Syrian military arsenal and ensure that advanced weapons do not fall into the hands of extremist factions.

Harb also noted that “the United States is suspicious that the Syrian regime continues to develop its chemical capabilities,” a concern it shares with Israel.

Reconstruction and the struggle for influence

Harb said that Turkey, despite having great influence in opposition-controlled areas, “lacks the economic resources necessary for reconstruction.” He emphasized that Ankara will need significant international support, especially from Arab countries, to be able to rebuild the destroyed areas.

In this context, Odeh Oglu emphasized the importance of “uniting the Syrian opposition” as a key step towards ensuring a stable political transition.

However, deep divisions within the opposition since 2011 have hampered these efforts, making stability difficult to achieve.

As for Iranian influence, Ihsanoglu pointed out that Tehran faces a tough test in light of growing international and regional pressure to reduce its presence in Syria.

“Iran has invested heavily in Syria over the past years and sees the country as a key pillar of its regional influence,” the analyst said. However, increasing coordination between Arab countries and Turkey may weaken their ability to maintain the same level of influence.

Dangers of chaos and power vacuum

Analysts unanimously agree that the transition phase in Syria will be fraught with risk.

Harb said, “The absence of a unified international vision could lead to a political vacuum similar to what happened in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein,” as the American failure to manage the transition phase led to Iranian control over the joints of Iraq’s states.

Odeh Oglu emphasized that “Turkey has the strongest influence in Syria today,” but faces major challenges in managing armed factions such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which the United States considers a terrorist organization. Despite Turkey’s coordination with some countries, questions remain about Ankara’s ability to impose full control and ensure stability in the areas it governs.