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Analysts believe that armed factions are advancing towards… Damascus It is an indicator of the change in power dynamics that also affects countries such as, for example Iran Turkey, Russia and the USA, according to what was published by the American New York Times.
According to a report published by the newspaper, the expected brutal fight for control of Damascus, and therefore Syria, would represent the most important confrontation so far in the struggle to reshape the region, a conflict that ignited on October 7, 2023 with an attack. led agitation About Israel.
According to the report, the major regional players Israel Iran and Turkey have a stake in the outcome, meaning the ripples will affect not only the Middle East, but also global powers like USA And Russia.
Analysts describe the fight for Syria as a more important conflict than the conflict in Gaza because the aim is to control a regional crossroads that affects The Middle East As a whole.
“Syria is a barometer of how power dynamics in the region are changing,” said Mona Jakubian, head of the Middle East and North Africa Center at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington. “It is entering a period of chaos in a region that is already on fire.”
USA
The United States is gone Russia Previously, it was played in a Syrian stadium, and now the events come at a time when America is going through a transitional moment between two administrations, which reduces the chances of moving to this file.
The United States fears that a jihadist regime will take over the Syrian presidency Bashar al-Assad This fear persists despite Hai’at Tahrir al-Sham leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani’s talk of taking moderate steps towards minorities.
Russia
Russia used its air force to bomb the strongholds of the armed factions, but now it is busy with its war in… Ukrainedespite the sequel Moscow Aerial bombing in Syria, but on a much smaller scale.
This is coming because of the president Vladimir Putin It now faces the dilemma that if it builds up its forces in Syria to support Damascus, it risks neglecting its forces in Ukraine.
Israel
Israeli strategists call Syria a “hub,” which has served as a conduit for the supply of men and weapons to places like the south LebanonAnd there it was HezbollahIran’s main regional ally.
The report said Israel is determined to prevent Iran from re-establishing Hezbollah supply lines, and it is unclear how Israel will interact with the Islamic government in Syria if Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime falls, particularly the current government linked to the Turkish president. Recep Tayyip ErdoganSiham directed his criticism at Israel for the war in Gaza.
Turkey
Some analysts believe that Erdogan’s greatest role was in the great advance of armed factions led by… Hai’at Tahrir al-ShamAnd who pointed it out Ankara She seized the opportunity to increase her influence at a time when Iran was under siege, especially since Turkey wanted the return of three million Syrian refugees who fled to its territory because of the war in their country.
Iran
Iran realizes that this development could see it lose its influence in Damascus, which has been helping it deliver supplies to Lebanon. fighting with Israel.
Syria relied heavily on pro-Iranian militias for ground forces, but Israeli missile strikes on Syria have cut the ranks of senior Iranian militia leaders as well as supply lines.
Hezbollah
As for Hezbollah, its forces crossed the border from Lebanon in 2013 to crush armed factions in The short one.
A Hezbollah official in Damascus, speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons, said some of his men were now deployed to defend the country. hummus.
But after months of fighting Israel in Lebanon, it is unclear how many forces Hezbollah has left to deploy in Syria.
An old car
When it comes to the Syrian army, some of the most powerful units, the 4th Armored Division and the Republican Guard, have long been stationed around Damascus with the aim of protecting it from coups.
But lack of training and low pay took their toll, as regular forces disappeared rather than clashed with armed factions.
“You need loyal, reliable forces to hold the country, and they’re not there,” said Andrew J. Tabler, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former U.S. government security official.
Many analysts consider the central Syrian state a hollow shell “The ruling regime in Syria is incredibly decrepit,” Tabler says, “It’s like an old car put together by unknown mechanics.”
“It’s all about the balance of power between these regional players in the Levant, with Syria at the heart,” said Firas Maksad, a senior fellow and Syria expert at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.