Syria is on the threshold of a new phase… the importance of Homs and the fear of division

This file was the focus of discussion inNoonIn the show “Sky News Arabia”, with the participation of Brigadier General Turki Al Hassan from Damascus and military and strategic expert Asad Al-Zubi from Riyadh.

city hummusSyria’s third-largest city has come within range of armed groups that have managed to advance into its northern suburbs despite Russian airstrikes and attempts by government forces to repel the attacks.

Brigadier General Turki Al-Hassan described the battle of Homs as “the mother of all battles”, explaining that the city is in a strategic location connecting the south to the north and the capital. Damascus On the coast, where there are Russian military installations.

Al-Hassan stressed that “the fall of Homs will be a major blow to the Syrian government,” stressing the importance of strengthening defenses to prevent control Armed factions To the city.

Al-Zubi also believed that the rapid advance of armed organizations “reflects the weakness of government forces and the ability of opposition factions to move flexibly on the ground.”

He added: “Homs gains great importance due to its direct influence on supply routes and its proximity to the Lebanese border, which makes its control a strategic objective for both sides.”

in Southern SyriaThe Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that local factions had taken control of Syrian army positions in Daraa, with reports of withdrawal of some government checkpoints.

Al-Zubi commented on this development saying that residents of Daraa “played a big role in facilitating the entry of armed factions”, while Al-Hassan denied these allegations, stating that “residents do not join armed groups” and that “the movement to the south is associated with external directives to support the opposition factions”.

Is the Syrian scene heading for division?

The opinions of the two guests differed on the future of Syria in light of these changes, as Al-Hassan warned of a partition scenario, noting that “the loss of Homs could lead to a new equation similar to the situation in Afghanistan, with an increase in external influence in the management of the Syrian conflict.”

While Al-Zoubi felt that “the Syrian revolution seeks to establish a civil democratic system”, adding that “all future elections will be held completely freely and will determine the identity of the new political leadership”, but admitted that “armed factions currently have the upper hand on earth.”

The discussion touched on the statement of the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, which he gave to the American news network CNN, where he indicated the desire to form an institutional government and a system of government chosen by the people.

Al-Hasan described these statements as “an attempt to present Al-Julani as an alternative political front”, adding that this step “comes on the basis of Turkish instruction to achieve regional goals”.

Between escalation and resolution

With the advance of armed organizations and the continued withdrawal of governments, the Syrian scene faces a crossroads, as Al-Hassan pointed out that “foreign intervention, especially from Turkey, aims to achieve regional gains at the expense of the unity of Syria.”

On the other hand, Al-Zubi emphasized the importance of supporting a political solution in accordance with the resolutions of the United Nations, noting that “only the Syrian people have the right to decide on their future.”